Conditions for large earthquakes in a two-asperity fault model

Response of a 14-Story Anchorage, Alaska, Building in 2002 to Two Close Earthquakes and Two Distant Denali Fault Earthquakes

The recorded responses of an Anchorage, Alaska, building during four significant earthquakes that occurred in 2002 are studied. Two earthquakes, including the 3 November 2002 M7.9 Denali fault earthquake, with epicenters approximately 275 km from the building, generated long trains of longperiod (.1 s) surface waves. The other two smaller earthquakes occurred at subcrustal depths practically be...

Variation of large elastodynamic earthquakes on complex fault systems

[1] One of the biggest assumptions, and a source of some of the biggest uncertainties in earthquake hazard estimation is the role of fault segmentation in controlling large earthquake ruptures. Here we apply a new model which produces sequences of elastodynamic earthquake events on complex segmented fault systems, and use these simulations to quantify the variation of large events. We find a nu...

STATISTICAL PREDICTION OF THE SEQUENCE OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES IN IRAN

The use of different probability distributions as described by the Exponential, Pareto, Lognormal, Rayleigh, and Gama probability functions applied to estimation the time of the next great earthquake (Ms≥6.0) in different seismotectonic provinces of Iran. This prediction is based on the information about past earthquake occurrences in the given region and the basic assumption that future seismi...

Resolving Fault Plane Ambiguity for Small Earthquakes

Probabilistic View of Occurrence of Large Earthquakes in Iran

In this research seismicity parameters, repeat times and occurrence probability of large earthquakes are estimated for 35 seismic lineaments in Persian plateau and the surrounding area. 628 earthquakes of historical time and present century with MW>5.5 were used for further data analysis. A probabilistic model is used for forecasting future large earthquake occurrences in each chosen lineament....